In the Economist magazine, a short article argues that the housing issues on the mainland are only half over:

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In today’s Wall Street Journal, an article cites Wellesley College Professor Karl Case calling the bottom of the national housing market:

But new housing starts have at last slumped below the seemingly magical one million mark. That happened in March. Every time that has happened in the last 50 years, it proved to be the bottom of a recession.”It is really remarkable how much where we are today looks like the bottom we’ve had in the last three cycles,” Mr. Case says. “Every time we’ve gone below a million starts, the market has cleared at that moment.”

Is he right?

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In April there were eleven re-sales of  in Wailea condominiums and Makena condominiums. The median sale price of $1.875 million was dramatically higher than both 2007 numbers and the first quarter of 2008 results. That is a reflection of tow Ho'olei resales being added to the mix for the first time and three other oceanfront closings. The per sqaure foot average price, the better measure in our opinion, of $1194 was up 3% over 2007 and 8% over the first quarter 2008. The most telling characteristic of the sales was that of the 11 nine were either new or heavily remodeled. Exceptional condition continues to be a key attribute buyers are seeking. For sale inventory has declined under the 180 unit level for the first time in months.

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A few days ago, while discussing values for Maui real estate we tried to quantify the value of newer condominiums on Maui to older, otherwise comparable ones. In today's New York Times, an article describes how buyers in NYC are thinking about new versus older condominiums. Here are some snippets and then we'll discuss how this applies to Maui real estate:

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As our regular readers know, Bank of Hawaii Chief Economist Paul Brewbaker is among the finest sources of data on the economy of the State of Hawaii. He released his latest report on April 30 and as usual it is full of useful information.

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We have blogged about this earlier, but since the Wall Street Journal caught on today it probably warrants another post.

The wealthy think the U.S. is in a recession. But they’re still bullish on real estate, according to a new study… the wealthy were also the most cheery about the real-estate market. Of wealthy respondents, 40% said they plan to buy real estate over the next year. That compares with only 17% for the Upper Middle Class. The rich who plan to buy homes are mainly looking for leisure properties. One-third plan to buy a vacation home, while about a quarter plan to buy third homes.

What does this mean for Maui real estate?

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From our friends at Calculated Risk comes a chart showing the percentage of listings in San Diego which are either banks sales (REO's) or short sales. They now total well over one-half of all listings. 

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In our analysis of 2007 Wailea and Makena sales results, one of the characteristics that struck us was the widening valuation gap between properties in up-to-date condition and those not in up-to-date condition. For example in 2006, on a per square foot basis, there was no appreciable per-square-foot valuation difference between oceanfront condominiums that had been recently upgraded, and those that has been upgraded in the past. Properties in need of an upgrade obtained per square foot prices 42% lower. In 2007 however that dynamic changed and oceanfront condominiums up to 2007 luxury standards obtained per square foot prices 21% higher than those that had been remodeled but less recently. In 2007, there was no appreciable per-square-foot difference between units needing upgrades and units with older upgrades. This dynamic was similar for non-oceanfront condominiums and for single family homes in Wailea and Makena as well.

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We are please to announce the sale of Wailea Beach Villas Penthouse unit 307 for $3 million. This immaculate two-bedroom, 1978 square foot condominium offers breathtaking ocean views. For details on how Real Estate's Leading Edge can work for you, please contact us!